Recent events suggest that the possibilities for a peaceful transition to democracy in Yemen are now exhausted. The stage is set for a revolutionary civil war to oust the Saleh regime.
Despite president Saleh getting "seriously" injured and fleeing for "treatment" in Saudi Arabia – a cause for scenes of jubilation in the capital Sanaa – his regime is intact, and the president has even stated his intention to return to Yemen.
Armed struggle in Yemen is not new, of course, but the fighting became much more violent in May, when machine gunfire in Sanaa was replaced by explosions, as forces loyal to tribal leader Sadiq Al-Ahmar attacked government buildings after Saleh again reneged on a deal to step down.
Given the Yemeni social structure, which includes armed tribes, and the fact these tribes are now in direct conflict with the regime, the basis for a civil war exists. Combine that with the five-month-old democracy movement of students, islamists and socialists, allied with tribal leaders, and the fact this movement has been repeatedly frustrated and violently attacked, and civil war becomes almost inevitable.
The apparent resilience and the extreme stubborness of the Saleh regime cannot be understood without reference to the continuing support of the USA and its proxy in the Yemeni conflict - Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis have long taken the side of the Saleh regime in its war on northern rebels, who occupy the border between the two countries. Saudi Arabia controls the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, which has 'mediated' the current conflict between democratic forces and the Yemeni regime. Unsurprisingly, the PGCC aims to exclude the revolutionary youth from any post-Saleh power structures.
Long before the current democracy struggle erupted, the USA had launched what many consider a war on Yemen, in the form of airstrikes – backed by Saleh – against what it claims are al Qaeda strongholds in the country. US militaty aid – over $150 million in 2010 - has been crucial in propping up Saleh's regime.
Obama has now escalated US bombing. Washinton refuses to give details, but a New York Times article reported that US aircraft and drones are targeting antigovernment forces. As the US admits only around 250 al-Qaeda personnel are in Yemen (with a population of 24 million), it is obvious that Obama's real aim is to crush the rebellion, and has nothing to do with fighing terrorism.
Let's be clear: the responsibility for any civil war in Yemen rests with Saleh and his backers. Not only does the regime's intransigence and violence mean the prospects for peaceful democratic reform are zero, Saleh seems to be actively promoting a civil war to split the country along tribal lines.
For example, in a bid to foment inter-tribal conflict, Saleh's forces attacked a meeting of tribal leaders at the home of Sheikh Sadegh Ahmar – leader of Saleh's own Hashed tribe. Even though hundreds have died as a result of government violence in the last five months, the killings at the sheikh's home are especially provocative.
Nevertheless, leaders of the Yemeni youth have called for protests to remain peaceful. Tawakkol Karman, writing in the New York Times, appeals to the USA and Saudi Arabia – who she admits have both interfered in Yemeni affairs in pursuit of their own interests, and who are the real powers behind the Saleh regime – to engage with the opposition movement and facilitate a transition to democracy in Yemen! She even recognzes the USA's "right to attack terrorist sanctuaries"!
This illustrates the deep crisis of leadership faced by the Yemeni democracy movement. What it needs is a political leadership which understands the need to prepare an armed struggle to overthrow the regime and links up with the existing armed opposition forces.
The movement also requires a program to tackle Yemen's catastrophic economic problems which would win the support of workers, youth and tribes, and create a united struggle to overthrow capitalism, repel imperialist attacks, and inspire workers in the region to do likewise.
In Yemen, civil war may well now be inevitable. But the impact of the political struggle for democracy – whether or not it develops a revolutionary socialist current which can decisively influence the armed struggle – will determine whether the latter assumes the character of a reactionay inter-tribal war, or a revolutionary civil war culminating in workers' power.
